Friday, May 24, 2024

Box Office Predictions: New Releases no match for The Super Mario Bros. Movie’s second week

This week sees the release of three wide new releases that will all pale in comparison to the second week of the juggernaut that is The Super Mario Bros. Movie.

The past few weeks have seen some summer tent pole level releases with franchise records being set and box office records being broken, signaling that movie-going seems to be back in full effect. This week sees three new films hit theaters that are more in line with what you would expect from mid April releases. 

Of course no new release will take down the behemoth that is The Super Mario Bros. Movie as not only did the film set records last weekend, it continued to break them during the week. This is a film that genuinely spits in the face of critics reviews, as it currently only has a 57% on Rotten Tomatoes with our own Chris Bumbray giving it just a 6/10 in his review, yet with its 96% audience score, the people that genuinely matter, the ones that spend their hard earned money at the theaters, are making their voices heard by giving the film great word of mouth. Movies that open as well as Mario did ($146.3 million) tend to have significant second week drops, but I can’t see this one losing much more than 40% and finishing around $88 million.

Solid word of mouth should also help films like Air and John Wick: Chapter 4 remain in the top five for another week while Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves looks to level out and hopefully ride a steady wave of grosses into profitability, although it has a ways to go before it recoups its $150 million budget before marketing costs. 

Renfield Nicolas Cage Dracula

The big new new release for the week is Renfield which should be selling tickets by the simple premise that it is Nicolas Cage playing Dracula. Reviews for the Robert Kirkman conceived film are leaning positive with our own David Arroyo giving the film a solid 8/10 in his review. Having seen the film just last night, I 100% agree with Mr. Arroyo’s views on the movie as it is an incredibly fun take on the classic material and plays a lot like Zombieland in that it doesn’t take itself serious at all and is just a genuinely funny take on a classic horror character. And again, Nicolas Cage as Dracula! The guy has proven himself to be one of the best actors working as no matter the role, he gives it 1000%. The studio is only projecting a high single digit finish for the film this weekend, and the screening I saw last night had a lot of empty seats, but with a lot of films recently over-indexing, I think this one can get over the double digit mark and hit $12 million.

A new ad for The Pope's Exorcist, a supernatural thriller starring Russell Crowe, shows footage from a real exorcism

The next new release hitting screens this weekend is your yearly Exorcist film: The Pope’s Exorcist. The thing that separates this one however is the fact that it stars an A-List Academy Award Winning actor with Russell Crowe taking over the heavenly duties in this supposedly true life story based on the memoirs of real life exorcist Father Gabriele Amorth. The film, directed by Overlord’s Julius Avery has pulled in mixed reviews with most saying that it is Russell Crowe’s committed performance that saves the film. Right now the studio is projecting a $10 million finish for the film, but with reviews the way they are, I’m not quite sure I see this one hitting that high. A $7 million finish seems more likely.

Next up on our new release countdown is the Crunchyroll studio’s release of Suzume. In my short time as Joblo’s Box Office Analyst, I have learned to never count out these animated titles released by Crunchyroll studios as their fans always turn up the opening weekend. They have seen success from Number one openers (DragonBall Super: Super Hero) to just last month landing at the number four spot with Demon Slayer into the Swordsmith Village. The film has already proven a massive hit around the globe, becoming the fourth highest grossing film of all time in Japan and amassing over $256 million worldwide. So, the question is how much will American audiences take to Suzume? While it doesn’t have the name recognition of a DragonBall, I have learned my lesson and never underestimate these niche releases, especially when you notice that the film is taking over a lot of the Imax screens that were occupied by Super Mario Bros last week. A $9 million finish is not out of the realm of possibility.

Other new releases this weekend that aren’t expected to make too much of a dent are the Toni Collette starring Mafia Mamma which already has a Blu Ray release date of June 6 (check out our own Alex Maidy’s 5/10 review here), followed by the other demonic possession movie Nefarious starring Boondocks Saints’ Sean Patrick Flanery and the true story Sweetwater about Nat Clifton who was the first African American to sign an NBA contract. If you live in New York or Los Angeles, you can check out Ari Aster’s new film Beau is Afraid at one of the five locations it is playing before it expands next week (check out our own Chris Bumbray’s review of the unclassifiable 3 hour film here.)

Do you plan on hitting theaters this weekend? If so, let us know what you plan on seeing and don’t forget to check back on Saturday when we have a brief update on where this weekend’s box office numbers are heading

TOP FIVE PREDICTIONS:

  1. The Super Mario Bros. Movie $88 Million
  2. Renfield$12 Million
  3. Air$10 Million
  4. John Wick: Chapter 4$9.5 Million
  5. Suzume$9 Million

Originally published at https://www.joblo.com/our-box-office-predictions/

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